Australia’s property professionals believe the retirement housing industry has the healthiest 2020 capital growth outlook of any property sector.

On 16 January, the Property Council of Australia released its quarterly industry sentiment survey, prepared in conjunction with ANZ. This survey canvassed the views of over 950 respondents - including, owners, developers, agents, managers, consultants and government - across all major industry sectors and regions. 

According to the survey, retirement living capital growth expectations for the next 12 months increased by a further 8 points to 31 points. 

This is the highest positive sentiment score for all of the property sectors surveyed (including residential, retail, industrial, office and hotel).

According to a series of charts released alongside the report (see key slide below), the strongest retirement industry growth expectations were in the Australian Capital Territory, Victoria and Queensland.

The Property Council analysis lends weight to the view that there are strong demographic and economic fundamentals which are underpinning the growth of the Australian retirement and downsizing housing industry.

This includes the following:

  • In June 2018, some 8.3 million Australians were aged 50 and over, compared to 7.51 million in June 2013 (an increase of 11 per cent). 

  • The number and proportion of older Australians is expected to continue to grow. By 2057, it is projected there will be 8.8 million older people in Australia (22% of the population); by 2097, 12.8 million people (25%) will be aged 65 and over.

  • About one in five older Australians have sold their property and purchased a less expensive home since turning 50, and about 5 per cent have sold and moved to renting. 

  • Of the older home owners that have not moved yet, about 15 per cent had strong intentions to do so at some point in the future.